Why prediction markets are a sure sign that our civilisation is in decay

This newsletter is free to read, and it’ll stay that way. But if you want more - extra posts each month, no sponsored CTAs, access to the community, and a direct line to ask me things - paid subscriptions are $2.50/month. A lot of people have told me it’s worth it. Upgrade In July 2003, the public found out that DARPA (the research and dev agency responsible for the internet itself) had been funding a futures market called the Policy Analysis Market. Traders would bet on Middle East political events, including assassinations, coups, terror attacks, and regime changes. The program had been proposed in 2001 by a small San Diego research firm called Net Exchange, with intellectual scaffolding from the economist Robin Hanson at George Mason; and by 2003 it sat inside the Information Awareness Office, whose director was Admiral John Poindexter, Reagan's former National Security Advisor.Poindexter had been convicted in 1990 on five counts of lying to Congress over Iran-Contra; his…