Hype Cycles - Collective Dunning-Kruger

The Gartner Hype Cycle is a graphical representation that illustrates the maturation, adoption, and social application of new technologies. It begins with a “Technology Trigger,” followed by a “Peak of Inflated Expectations,” crashes into a “Trough of Disillusionment,” climbs up a “Slope of Enlightenment,” and eventually levels out at a “Plateau of Productivity.” It is basically the cultural learning curve of groups. This cyclical journey eerily mirrors the Dunning-Kruger effect, a well-documented cognitive bias where people with low knowledge overestimate their competence and those with greater expertise tend to underestimate theirs. When we view the Gartner Hype Cycle as a macro-level manifestation of the Dunning-Kruger effect, it becomes clear how collective overconfidence, underinformed excitement, and gradual maturity shape public and institutional responses to emerging technologies. From Individual Bias to Collective DelusionThe Dunning-Kruger effect highlights a key…