How I lost 1000€ betting on CS:GO — Practice

This is a true story of how I lost money using machine learning (ML) to bet on CS:GO. The project was done with a friend, who gave me permission to share this story in public. Check out the first post of the series, which covers the theory and foundations necessary to understand what’s going on in this second post: What is your edge? Financial decision-making with ML One bet: Expected profits and decision rule Multiple bets: The Kelly criterion Probability calibration Winner’s curse In this post, I will go over the actual implementation of the solution: CS:GO basics Data scraping Feature engineering TrueSkill Inferential vs predictive models Dataset Modelling Evaluation Backtesting Why I lost 1000 euros Solution Before we get to the actual solution, I need to explain some CS:GO basics: CS:GO basics Counter-Strike: Global Offensive (CS:GO) is a first-person shooter (FPS) multiplayer game. It can be played casually or competitively. When played competitively, it’s typically played on…