This post has benefited from generous contributions from Austin Vernon, Malcolm Davis, Sam D’Amico, and others who do not necessarily endorse the conclusions of this piece. I will follow Australian spelling conventions in this piece. I’ve written a few pieces over the years about Australian energy and economic policy, and now I’m dipping my toes into defence. The usual disclaimers apply; this post represents my opinions only. I’m a dual US/Australia citizen, resident in Los Angeles, where I founded and run Terraform Industries, a solar synthetic fuel tech startup. I write this as someone who is familiar with the 2023 Defence Strategic Review, the 2024 and 2026 National Defence Strategies, and the 2024 and 2026 Integrated Investment Programs (IIP). While each successive document diagnoses the strategic environment with increasing accuracy it allocates capital against a threat model that no longer exists. Australia spends nearly AUD $60B/year (US $40B/year) on defence, about 2% of GDP.…
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