I am a diligent flashcarder, and the tool I made uses a lot of randomness in its scheduling, for reasons I go into here. I have well over 900,000 responses now, which is enough to let me do reasonable analysis of even fairly specific situations. So, for example: after a certain pattern of correct and incorrect answers, how sensitive is the correctness rate of the next response to the next interval? Concretely: If I make a flashcard and my first three responses to it are (in this order) correct, incorrect, and correct, what is the relationship between the next time interval and my likelihood of getting the next (fourth) response correct? Here's a chart: And here's the LOWESS-smoothed version: (In the former chart, <= 8 hours and >= 40 hours are bucketed together, so A few notes: The very small intervals are mostly due to questions coming up randomly before they were scheduled to reappear. (My software injects random questions into study sessions, primarily to make it harder to guess…
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